As human lives appear, act, interact and eventually perish, they invariably contribute to their immediate and mediate environment. The intensity of these interactions varies over time. Not surprisingly, social sciences have always suffered from inferiority complex, being unable model these interactions in a satisfactory manner. But there does seem be certain periodicity in the ways human constructs are transformed. Our experience tells us that, sometimes, “history suddenly accelerates”. And when it does, the consequences are dramatic.
At the beginning of 1988, Newsweek welcomed the 20th anniversary of the momentous events that had shaped the worldview of an entire generation of young people in Paris, Prague, Tokyo, Warsaw and America. The magazine complained that by late 1980s, the world had become a placid, almost uneventful place. It took less than two years to shatter that complacency. And soon after, we all celebrated “the End of History” and “New World Order”.
Fast forward. In March 2003, I was boarding a plane from New York to Tokyo. I landed in a different world, by which I do not mean a very familiar Narita terminal. During my long flight, the “coalition forces” entered Iraq. In the name of selective interests, Washington’s unilateralism critically weakened the international mechanisms that, until then, could claim to protect the system of values that promoted basic freedoms. The invasion of Iraq set the precedent of military intervention in the perceived “sphere of influence”. And although it was not immediately obvious to geographically challenged Americans, this colossal geostrategic blunder was to haunt Western dominance for years by underscoring that great military powers may write their own rules of engagement.
Last week, Russian military retaliated against Georgia’s clumsy attempt to reassert its sovereignty over a breakaway enclave. By resorting to military power beyond its borders, Russian actions highlighted the relevance of the three pivotal moments mentioned above: 1968 (Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia), 1989 (collapse of the communist bloc) and 2003 (invasion of Iraq)
Postjudice will devote some space to the profound changes that this development portends for 21st Russia and for the immediate (and mediate) future of what now reappears to be - to use this allegedly anachronistic parlance – “East-West relations”.
In order to properly understand the context of the events that have shaken the world since August 8th, I will first outline the main historical events. This timeline will be a useful fact-finding reference for the future articles in the series.
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Status quo as of mid-2008.
Republic of Georgia is an independent state south of Caucasus. It has been described as “western-leaning” since its democratic transition in 1993. Within its internationally recognized borders, it harbors two enclaves whose linguistically distinct populations have been clamoring for independence of Tbilissi since Georgia separated from the USSR in 1991. Throughout the 17 years of Georgia’s independence, Russia has taken on a role of protecting the enclaves from full incorporation into Georgian control. But the story is a little longer than that…
337
Kingdom of Georgia becomes a Christian state
988
Kievan Rus becomes a Christian state
1184-1213
Georgia controls all of Transcaucasia
1200s
Mongol invasions decimate the Georgian population
1500-1700s
Georgia falls victim to conflicts between Turkey and Persia
1803-1804
Russia conducts annexation of Georgia and Azerbaijan
1806
Russia annexes Ossetia, a Caucasus-straddling population which speaks a language belonging to Persian family.
1810
Russia annexes Abkhazia, a linguistically separate group on the northeast shore of the Baltic Sea. Many local Muslims to flee to the Ottoman Empire.
1811
Georgian Church is forcibly incorporated into Russian Orthodox Church
1820-1860s
Russian forces struggle to subjugate other areas of the region, including Chechnya, northern Abkhazia and western Kabardia.
1917
Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan create anti-Bolshevik Transcaucasian Federation.
1918
Georgia declares independence
1921
Bolsheviks invade Georgia and incorporate the country into USSR, first as a part of Transcaucasian Soviet Republic.
1931
Abkhazia becomes “an autonomous republic” within Transcaucasian Soviet Republic. Russians and Mingrelian (western) Georgians immigrate into the area. Pontic Greeks are deported and Georgianization of Abkhazia proceeds under Lavrenti Beria, then the Secretary of the Communist Party in Georgia.
1936
Georgia becomes a separate Soviet Republic. It includes Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia within its borders.
1988
Ronald and Nancy Reagan visit Georgian SSR.
1989
In April, a peaceful demonstration in Tbilissi is broken up by the Soviet troops. Several people are killed.
Inter-ethnic violence erupts in Abkhazia.
Violent clashes between pro-Russian Ossetians and independence-minded Georgians, led the former to proclaim Soviet Democratic Republic of South Ossetia.
1990
In March, Georgia’s Supreme Soviet abolishes a short-lived autonomy of South Ossetia.
In November, in the first multi-party elections, Zviad Gamsakhurdia’s party beats the Communist Party.
1991
Conflict erupts with South Ossetia. Ossetians conduct pogroms of ethnically Georgian villages. Moscow supports Ossetians against Georgian forces.
On April 6, Georgia declares independence from the Soviet Union.
In December, Georgia becomes a member of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Armed opposition launches a coup d’état to depose Gamsakhurdia.
1992
In January, President Zviad Gamsakhurdia is deposed.
In March, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of USSR, Eduard Sheverdnadze becomes the head of the State Council.
Abkhazia declares independence from Georgia and war erupts between Georgia and the breakaway region. Reportedly, Abkhaz revolt is supported by Chechen mercenaries. 200’000 ethnic Georgians flee Abkhazia. The situation is complicated by government’s obsession with the presumed or real activities of Gamsakhurdia’s sympathizers.
In June, a ceasefire between Abkhaz rebels and Georgia leads to de-escalation of the conflict.
Dzhokar Dudayev creates a quasi-independent state in neighboring Chechnya.
1993
End of the military conflict with Abkhazia. Georgia proposes autonomy for Abkhazia. Ever since, Abkhazia functions as a de facto independent state, but has failed to gain international recognition.
Between September and November, Gamsakhurdia tries to mount a military offensive against the government forces. Russia supports Shevardnadze’s troops in the conflict.
1994
Georgia signs a cooperation treaty with Russia, authorizing Russia to keep three military bases in Georgia.
Russian army begins a two-year war in Chechnya and suffers heavy defeats.
Previously displaced Georgian refugees begin to return to Gali district in Abkhazia.
1995
Eduard Shevardnadze is elected President of Georgia.
1996
Georgia and South Ossetia end hostilities. CIS imposes restrictions on providing military equipment and assistance to irregular forces in the Caucasus.
1997
In April, Georgian Parliament votes to threaten Russian army with loss of military bases if it failed to extend its control over Abkhazia. Russians appear to scale down their military presence in the Caucasus.
Aslan Maskhadov becomes president of neighboring Chechnya.
1998
Fighting erupts in Abkhazia’s Gali district. Inflow of ethnic Georgians stops.
1999
Putin is handpicked by Yeltsin as his successor. Second Chechnyan war begins.
NATO conducts military strikes against Serbia to force withdrawal of its forces from Kosovo. Non-military targets are hit during the aerial campaign.
Former Soviet satellites Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic become members of NATO.
2000
In February, Russian troops capture Grozny, the capital of Chechnya.
In March, Putin wins presidential elections in Russia. Eduard Shevardnadze wins presidential elections in Georgia.
Russian authorities begin to distribute Russian passports to ethnic Abkhaz and Ossetian populations in Georgia.
2003
In March, US-led coalition launches military operations in Iraq. Georgia will send a contingent of 2000 soldiers.
In November 2003, in a display of public revulsion against rigged presidential elections, Georgians rise in what was termed a “Rose Revolution”. Widespread corruption and the activity of Russian contraband in South Ossetia as among the targets of Georgian ire.
2004
In January, Columbia Law School graduate Mikheil Saakashvili wins the elections to become the President of Georgia. He promises a vigorous stance towards the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
In March, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and four other Eastern European states become NATO members.
South Ossetia and Georgia find themselves on the brink of war, but are dissuaded by their respective backers in Moscow and the West.
Sergei Karganov, head of Moscow’s think tank Council of Foreign and Defence Policy publishes “Farewell to Georgia” and advocates separation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Several Eastern European countries, including the three Baltic states, become members of the European Union.
In December, Orange Revolution in Ukraine topples the pro-Moscow regime there and brings a western-leaning Viktor Yushchenko to power.
2005
In January, Georgia presents in Strasbourg a plan for resolution of South Ossetian conflict. OSCE and the US would later support the plan.
Georgia offers a federal structure of government to Abkhazia.
2006.
In January, Russia cuts off gas supplies to Ukraine.
Georgian forces occupy Kudori gorge in Abkhazia and install a local government in the region. Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov labels Georgia a “Bandit state”.
Efforts to destabilize Georgia’s pro-Western government intensify: spying affairs, accusations over harboring of Chechnyan terrorists, trade embargoes, cuts of gas supplies, airspace violations.
In autumn EU agrees to negotiate a new cooperation treaty with Russia to replace the 10-year agreement, bound to expire in 2007.
In October, journalist Anna Politkovskaya is murdered in Moscow.
In November, an internationally monitored referendum in South Ossetia shows an overwhelming support for independence. It fails to gain support of the international community.
In November, Alexander Litvinenko is poisoned in London.
2007
US proposes to set up an early warning radar in Czech Republic and an interceptor base in Poland as defense measures against potential ballistic missile attack from Iran. Russia vigorously opposes the move.
In January, Dmitry Medvedev, Chairman of Gazprom announces to business audiences gathered in Davos that Russia demands “respect, not love”.
In February, Putin delivers a watershed speech at Munich Conference on Security Policy, prompting strong reaction in the Western media which point to ‘cold war’ themes.
In April Russian cyberattacks target EU and NATO member Estonia after the authorities decide to move a Soviet-era monument to a different location. The response of Estonia allies is initially muted.
In November, fresh heavy-armored Russian troops appear in Abkhazia.
January 2008
Mikheil Saakashvili is re-elected President of Georgia.
February 2008
After eight years of EU administration, Kosovo declares independence. Russia opposes the move.
March 2008
Russia withdraws from the 1996 CIS arms embargo. Tbilissi offers autonomy to Abkhazia.
April 2008
Outgoing Russian President Putin announces opening of Russian “representations” in Abkhazia and South Ossetia to “protect its citizens”. Russia’s military reinforces the troops in northern Caucasus.
At a NATO summit in Bucharest, despite US and Eastern European support, Georgia and Ukraine are not offered an accession Action Plan (MAP), but are promised eventual membership.
May 2008
Russia’s railway troops appear in Abkhazia.
UN General Assembly adopts a resolution to allow Georgian refugees to return to Abkhazia.
Dmitry Medvedev is inaugurated as the new President of the Russian Federation.
July 2008
On July 4, the authorities of South Ossetia announce “general mobilization”. Russian military aircraft appear over Georgia. Russian Caucasus troops (SKVO) conduct military exercises. Regular reconnaissance flights over Georgia begin. Russia withdraws from Reagan-era Conventional Forces in Europe treaty (CFE).
August 1, 2008
South Ossetian separatists engage in exchange of fire with Georgian forces.
August 4, 2008
Five battalions of Russian army are amassing close to Roki tunnel – the only direct line of access between North Ossetia in Russian Federation and South Ossetia in the Republic of Georgia.
August 7 2008
Peace talks between Georgia and South Ossetia collapse. Georgian forces cross into South Ossetia and engage in intense fighting around South Ossetia’s capital Tskhnivali. South Ossetian refugees pour across the border into Russia.
US President Bush and Russia’s Prime Minister Putin are in Beijing for the opening of the Olympic Games.
August 8, 2008
Russian forces enter South Ossetia through Roki tunnel from North Ossetia.
Eastern European members of the EU call on Brussels to discontinue negotiations with Moscow over a new partnership agreement.
August 10, 2008
Russian forces occupy all of South Ossetia and begin incursions into Georgian territory. Saakashvili agrees to pull out Georgian forces and asks for ceasefire, but for most of the day neither Putin nor Medvedev can be contacted.
August 11, 2008
In Moscow, French President Sarkozy and Russian President Medvedev agree to stop the military confrontation. Prime Minister Putin, however, announces that the campaign should lead to “its natural conclusion”.
August 12, 2008
An agreement is signed, involving a vaguely stated “international mechanism” to resolve the conflict. Sarkozy travels to Tbilissi.
Despite the initial denials by Russian foreign minister Lavrov, Russian-backed military activity engulfs Abkhazia, where local forces re-capture Kodori gorge and force ethnic Georgians to flee.
In a show of solidarity with Georgia, the leaders of the three Baltic States, Poland and Ukraine join a patriotic demonstration in Tbilissi.
Russia’s financial institutions begin a massive sell-off of US credit instruments. However, the US dollar continues its rally.
August 13, 2008
Some 100’000 people are being displaced by the conflict. Russia continues to operate within Georgian territory, targeting airfields, Georgian coastal guard, and controlling key communication lines.
US commits humanitarian aid to Georgia and airlifts begin.
August 14, 2008
Georgian Parliament votes to withdraw from CIS.
After many months of difficult negotiations, Poland accepts US anti-ballistic missile batteries in exchange for security guarantees and short-range protection of its airspace.
August 15, 2008
US Secretary of State Condolezza Rice visits Tbilissi.
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This lengthy list of historic events has not yet led to what Mr Putin deems its “logical conclusion”. But it is necessary to increase the level of understanding of the complex nature the developments that have led to the most serious geopolitical shock since the fall of the Soviet Union. This understanding is lacking. Western media often insinuate that the “markets should pay attention to the conflict because of the oil pipeline that transports Caspian crude to the Western markets”. Yet this is but a sideshow in the broadening conflict.
The levels of ignorance are bottomless. Dennis Gartman, author of a popular daily market commentary distributed to hedge fund clients around the world, blundered pathetically when he compared Russian retaliation to a putative American reaction in case of Mexican intervention in the US state of New Mexico. There is just too much that separates the history outlined above from President Polk’s annexation of New Mexico and the subsequent purchase of its remaining territory. Postjudice assumes that not everyone wants to cultivate his/her ignorance and hopes that the introduction above will prove useful in our future discussions on this topic.
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