tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-46984587345567197812011-09-28T10:44:18.502-04:00Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.comBlogger311100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-4268118340980353942011-09-28T10:14:00.007-04:002011-09-28T10:44:18.689-04:00

THE TYRANNY OF OPAQUE MARKETSBy the nature of our profession, we are naturally obsessed by what we see daily on our screens. However, in the last several years I have become fascinated by what we do NOT see there. With so much risk capital now captured by the South and the East, unfortunately for us, the opacity of the dealings will only increase. There are three, interrelated reasons for this

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-21618197395301307932010-06-21T22:56:00.003-04:002010-06-21T23:11:22.094-04:00

Time has come now for some musings about this tournament… It is bound to be relatively uncontroversial, and, mind you, it is coming from far afar from any reputable soccer-lands. My first grown-up decision was not to watch the game with the ubiquitous Irish accent this year. Instead, I am watching “la copa del mundo” led by the inimitable Fernando Fiore and a crew including, among others, the

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-61661782278343181582008-12-30T19:46:00.012-05:002008-12-31T05:55:12.286-05:00

For those of us who have made through it, 2008 might well be remembered for personal successes and achievements, but collectively it has certainly set the world back, at the very least in terms of its wealth, health, environment, security and stability. With the possible exception of scientific progress, the faith in linear historical developments has now been duly, albeit belatedly shattered.

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-55737881019478437292008-12-07T10:49:00.010-05:002008-12-07T11:06:44.826-05:00

Over the last several weeks, the focus of the market has shifted from ‘financial crisis’ to ‘global economic crisis’. The surplus savings economies that were supposed to bail us all out have exposed structural weaknesses of their own. For years, the petro-economies and mercantilist Asia plunked their savings in the supposed safety of US Treasuries. This investment inertia has not only led to

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-56461112642803599322008-11-08T08:01:00.010-05:002008-11-08T08:40:50.967-05:00

Last weekend we decided to travel towards the Arctic Circle to see migrating polar bears. Although we had had such a vague plan for a long time, we finally pushed the button on it after hearing alarmist reports about these largest land carnivores were becoming endangered species. It all made sense. After all, polar bears do not prey on land creatures, but mostly depend on ice cover to hunt

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-8153948195000516432008-10-30T19:36:00.010-04:002008-10-31T07:12:32.325-04:00

Only several days are left till the final verdict is passed on the relative merits of two finalists in America’s most expensive ever electoral circus. It has been so much fun this time: we have enjoyed a parade including a liberal shrew, a token preacher, a plastic equity guru, a dallying populist, a septuagenarian grouch, a half-black upstart and finally a puck-loving but animal-hating diva.

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-80980048499870914612008-10-26T19:55:00.009-04:002008-10-26T20:15:08.971-04:00

Last week, China announced a number of moves to ease the stress in the real estate market. Down payments have been lowered, interest rates on first home mortgage cut and tax exemption extended. Although these policies should improve home sales in the coming months, they betray the overdependence of the Chinese economy on the government’s continued support for the real estate bubble.

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-83841240199652752332008-10-17T19:04:00.008-04:002008-10-17T19:35:36.793-04:00

I promised to focus on China's property bubble this week, but other important events are approaching fast and the planned feature will be delayed by several daysBARACK - OH, BUMMER!When fear and uncertainty spread their repulsive tentacles, many humans react by displacing and even personalizing the elusive object of such emotions. A similar phenomenon of projective blaming is now underway among

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-2392604976366173092008-10-11T09:57:00.011-04:002008-10-17T19:34:20.268-04:00

CHINA AND THE WORLD IN CRISISAnother week of market panic. Another long, damaging week for all those who borrowed short term liquidity in order to invest or lend in the long term. No end in sight for the unprecedented, convulsive seizing of interbank and money markets. No counterparty is trusted, no credit history adequate. But the worst could be yet to come. And it will come if trade

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-36160335055901600042008-10-04T11:43:00.010-04:002008-10-06T10:47:58.381-04:00

It has been an extraordinary week. While the world’s attention focused on the US Congress passing a bill that, by Friday afternoon appeared to be a sad story of too late and too little, the commercial paper market seized up, leaving the companies around the world unable to borrow money for the most basic of transactions. As the markets are scratching their sweaty heads, some observers seek

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-40538015494028366352008-09-15T19:15:00.007-04:002008-09-15T19:41:55.825-04:00

As the US presidential campaign is slowly turning into a self-parody of debates focusing on glass and ceilings, pits and bulls or lips and sticks, all too often do we get distracted by the fact that regardless of whether the next inhabitant of the White House will be more or less church-going, more or less gun-totting, and more or less procreating, this nation will also have to elect part of its

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-87823290584482135322008-09-06T19:53:00.009-04:002008-09-06T20:18:30.966-04:00

RUSSIA DOES NOT NEED THE WEST. OR DOES IT?For now, Russian troops continue to occupy northern Georgia, ensuring an extraordinary level of Western unity and resolve, even if differentiated in tone adopted by Brussels and Washington. The unbelievable happened this week: for the first time ever, 27 members of the EU mounted a sharp criticism of Russia. But, the $580bn question remains: does the

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-43961507552945465412008-08-31T15:13:00.006-04:002008-08-31T15:21:48.907-04:00

“Vacuum is over. It’s an end of an epoch. Short term consequences will be bad, many threats, tough talking. But long term prospects and consequences will be good as the West will now have to take Moscow’s interests into consideration and listen to Russia. Nobody wants confrontation with Russia”. Vyacheslav Nikonov, President of Polity Foundation.Over a week ago, as Russia celebrated a

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-59456388251256910002008-08-24T17:22:00.011-04:002008-08-24T19:55:57.358-04:00

The last two weeks have seen an astonishing re-emergence of the ‘coalition of the unwilling’. This accidental posse of commentators, literati, politicians and TV-watchers has questioned the West’s right to lecture Russia on its bellicose behavior. By this, I do not mean Russian citizens, most of whom have been galvanized into a strident brand of nationalism by this contemporary version of the

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-80056250277348792502008-08-16T19:56:00.006-04:002008-08-17T07:29:35.643-04:00

As human lives appear, act, interact and eventually perish, they invariably contribute to their immediate and mediate environment. The intensity of these interactions varies over time. Not surprisingly, social sciences have always suffered from inferiority complex, being unable model these interactions in a satisfactory manner. But there does seem be certain periodicity in the ways human

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-45511337296375732492008-08-10T10:37:00.009-04:002008-08-11T06:50:57.158-04:00

"China has stood up"Mao Tse Tung (Chinese dictator and poet)Last night, during the opening ceremony of the Olymipic Games in BJ, China stood up many times. And then it crouched. And then it stood up again. The martial order of the show was somewhat intimidating in size, but this must have been more than an artistic accident. And so, the symbolic cheap Chinese labor kept standing up and kept

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-24696070234006597432008-08-02T17:03:00.011-04:002008-08-04T14:30:02.081-04:00

I recall a moment after climbing Kilimanjaro. Three days after the conquest of the snowy peak, we were at a local airport. The sizable parking lot was entirely filled with white Toyotas – mostly vans or 4WDs. When I pointed out this extraordinary market saturation, my friend, from Charlottesville, VA replied dismissively – “better to be a small operator in a large market than a large player in

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-28204572076449643632008-07-26T10:38:00.009-04:002008-07-26T11:01:33.707-04:00

Bueno. Ingrid Betancourt is free. The American contractors are free. The war with communist terrorists is almost over. For all of you who have not been fortunate enough to discover the boundless charms of Colombia, it is time to chart your flights. Or just about.Most of you do not realize that I am writing about the 4th largest nation in the Western Hemisphere. The only South American

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-88480233526507934232008-07-19T10:57:00.009-04:002008-07-19T11:21:12.490-04:00

It has been over six months since the world markets wobbled uncertainly into the New Year. With comfortable hindsight bias overlooking multi-billion dollar losses, it is now time to refresh our view on what to expect during the period which separates us from resinous aroma of Christmas pines. Investors of All Nations Unite! No amount of diversification has protected you thus far. Year-to-date

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-23540854119654436082008-07-12T16:20:00.012-04:002008-07-14T06:51:58.723-04:00

INFRASTRUCTURE AND COMMODITY DEMANDEmerging markets are often characterized as primarily exporters of commodities. This is an over-simplification. On an aggregate basis, they are both exporters and importers of raw materials. India and China are net importers of commodities, while Australia and Canada are important exporters of commodities, including to customers in emerging markets. These

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-60022574619535911022008-07-05T09:04:00.011-04:002008-07-05T10:30:10.076-04:00

THE MYTH OF CHINESE UNITY“There is no problem. We are all Chinese”. (A Chinese entrepreneur in response the owner of “Ice Cream Factory” in New York’s Chinatown. The owner confronted him after discovering that the logo, the name and the business model of the decades-old “Ice Cream Factory” were perfectly copied by the newcomer several blocks away from the original shop). The myth of national

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-26668736856297480452008-06-28T17:50:00.010-04:002008-07-02T06:56:46.129-04:00

There is one thing we all need to learn from history: things that have never happened before do occur.In the northern hemisphere it is summer now, but if you are watching us from the moon, then you may not be able to be reading this article now, but instead you may see a pretty busy picture down here. There is a buzz of activity in parts of the fast developing world. The cranes crank, the rigs

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-86623585115309506992008-06-22T19:50:00.008-04:002008-06-24T06:13:48.727-04:00

Defined national histories were formulated in the 19th century. If Johann Gottfried von Herder established an idea that modern nations can only flourish if they have a distinct cultural identity, then the last 100 years of international sports have re-created this myth in the strife for national über-achievement. International competition all too often reminds us that national consciousness

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-56045229584172534762008-06-14T15:40:00.010-04:002008-06-14T15:59:36.505-04:00

REJECTION OF THE WAIGUO“The rejection of the foreign was more anxious for the very arrogance that justified it. That is the paradox of the superiority complex: it is intrinsically insecure and brittle. Those who cherish it need it and fear nothing so much as contradiction”. David Landes “Wealth and Poverty of Nations”.For the mainland Chinese and some increasingly vocal groups of overseas

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-18070921227956659662008-06-08T11:21:00.007-04:002008-06-14T15:40:09.128-04:00

40 years since the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy, America is confronted with the most thrilling prospect of political transformation. The unusually named candidate of mixed origin possesses unprecedented oratory skills and uses them to carry the promise of a spiritual renaissance, gaining the hearts and minds of idealistic intellectuals and not-quite-enfranchised black “minority” alike.

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-14162730543496895202008-06-02T19:20:00.005-04:002008-06-14T15:39:40.122-04:00

THE RACEOver centuries, China, as conceived by outsiders, has connoted an entire civilization, manifested by, if not necessarily defined by its various artifacts: its forms of government, its 3400 year-old written language, its sublime artistic expression and its precocious technological inventions. But while the marks of a civilization are distinctive, those of a “nation” are not. The

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-16471390608724020612008-05-25T12:14:00.008-04:002008-05-28T21:30:10.062-04:00

EMPIRE (STUCK) IN THE MIDDLE? THE CASE OF COLLECTIVE EGO-CENTRISM“A countryman offered the heat of the sun to the king, out of respect” ~ Chinese proverbIn the pre-modern era, those inhabitants of China whose horizons somehow extended beyond the immediate vicinity of their native village or a municipality imagined a universe as entirely centered on their own vertical society with an Emperor at

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-42978127001476669782008-05-23T21:16:00.000-04:002008-05-24T07:01:29.411-04:00

After 10 years of Thabo Mbeki’s rule, the fissures in South Africa’s ever complex socio-economic paysage have begun to advance at alarming speed. From bribery scandals and electricity shortage to rampant crime and physical persecution of foreigners – the alarm bells are signaling that the country’s hard won cohesion may soon be put to a severe test.The failure of government delivery is obvious.

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-65019079603375532472008-05-18T15:53:00.000-04:002008-05-19T13:00:45.114-04:00

Readers of Western press are easily lulled into a false sense of comfort by the recurrent application of a false dichotomy: “the China we know can only be Marxist-Leninist or it can be capitalist”. And since the country has “embarked on” a market economy (of sorts) and is eager to “do business” with the outside world then you can hardly argue that the People’s Republic is Marxist-Leninist in

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-22771736958054154672008-04-27T11:51:00.000-04:002008-04-27T18:00:51.490-04:00

Something is stirring in Cuba. For now, the locals are allowed to purchase cellphones and dvd players. But then again, so are the Chinese. Is this a moment to get excited about the changes on the Caribbean island, or will Havana follow the increasingly attractive Beijing consensus? Over a year ago, we returned from a trip to Cuba timed to capture the endangered species of Fidelism. A

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4698458734556719781.post-62841586336298463482008-04-19T18:24:00.000-04:002008-05-18T16:23:50.190-04:00

The recent events in Tibet redirected international spotlight on the socio-economic situation on the plateau whose cultural heritage has in recent years attracted passionate interest among Western or Westernized urban elites worldwide. For several convulsive days, international media struggled to provide footage beyond the spotty coverage of the violent riots that occurred in Lhasa on March 14.

Postjudicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01310263107205371449noreply@blogger.com1